New Scientist explains why earthquakes difficult to predict, why seismologists trying to predict it, and what approach to accuracy prediks usher in the future.
Can earthquakes be predicted?
No, at least not on when we could publish a more complete warnings within a given time and location that allows us to evacuate.
Most earthquakes occur in locations that have been predicted along the well-known fault zones, such as large tunjaman last week that occurred off the coast of Japan. Home earthquake kit
How precisely the earthquake can be predicted?
For areas with historically high level of activity, the probability that an earthquake will shake in a period of the next few decades can be very large.
“We have a model that says that in southern California for 30 years, the chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater than it was 38 percent,” said Thomas Jordan, Director of the California Earthquake Center and member Kolaboratorium Study of Earthquake Predictability.
If the same models used to calculate the probability of an earthquake occurred in southern California next week, it is likely to fall by about 0.02 percent, said Jordan.
Why would a major earthquake difficult to predict?
Reliable predictions requires a prerequisite, in the form of some sort of signal on Earth that indicate an earthquake will occur. The signal should occur just before the occurrence of a major earthquake and must occur before all the big earthquake occurs.
In the meantime, the seismologists failed to find the preconditions for it, even when it exists.
Signals what is considered seismologists can predict major earthquakes?
A large series of signals of potential have been studied, ranging from increased concentrations of radon gas, changes in electromagnetic activity, the initial shock which signifies a large earthquake will occur, turn or terdeformasinya the Earth’s surface, changes in geochemistry ground water, and even the behavior of odd animals in the period before the earthquake large earth happened.
Are all of these approaches work?
For each signal listed above, we have proof that the signals may apply odd before the occurrence of a major earthquake. Unfortunately, these distortions also occur when there is no large earthquake that follows the signals.
“When you really examine it all, none were steady,” said Susan Hough, a geophysicist at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.
Approach anything close to predictions that can precisely predict the future?
Some researchers continue to observe changes in the electromagnetic signals that initiate a major earthquake. This approach created for the work of Friedemann Freund at NASA Ames Research Center in California. Freund showed that the rock compression can lead to the formation of a positive electric charge on Earth that can explain the anomalous electromagnetic signals that precede an earthquake.
Could it be another big earthquake in Japan following the devastating earthquake last?
Nearly 200 shocks after an earthquake with an intensity of 5 or more on the Japanese scale that ends at number 7, occurred in the first three days of the Sendai earthquake March 11, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Possibilities of aftershocks with a scale of 5 or above, took place between 14 and March 17 are in the 40 percent probability level.